Not All ‘Teams of Rivals’ Are Made the Same: China’s Disastrously Divided Leadership
Not All ‘Teams of Rivals’ Are Made the Same: China’s Disastrously Divided Leadership
Deng Xiaoping is best known in the West as the author of the market-oriented policies that put China on a path to over three decades of rapid economic growth. But Deng also stabilized the nation’s political system by establishing rules and procedures for selecting leaders and transferring power. Since his day top figures in the state and party apparatus have served limited, ten-year terms, with the expectation that they will retire before reaching the age of seventy. And on Thursday November 15, just over a week after Barak Obama’s re-election, a new group of leaders will emerge from the opaque, multi-year process of promotion, bargaining and deal making that has evolved since Deng stepped aside in 1992.
As in the United States, the final outcome will not be revealed until all the ballots are counted and the victors will be greeted with lavish accolades—though in China the names of the men at the top of the ticket have been known for some time. Barring a last minute “November surprise,” Xi Jinping, currently China’s vice president, will take over Hu Jintao’s roles as head of state and chief of the Communist party, while vice premier Li Keqiang replaces Wen Jiabao as the top man in the government bureaucracy. (The other five positions on the Politiburo Standing Committee, the nation’s most powerful decision-making body, will also be filled on Thursday.) Deng’s system has thus far served its purpose: preventing the disruptive, sometimes bloody power struggles that have been the downfall of other authoritarian regimes.
This year’s succession, however, has been far from smooth. China’s political elite is clearly divided against itself, although the precise composition of the factions is much hazier. Some observers see a contest between a group of “princelings,” the descendants of China’s revolutionary founders, and those from more modest backgrounds, many of whom got their start in the Communist Party Youth League. (Xi belongs to the first group, Li is a member of the second.) Others describe a behind-the-scenes struggle between Hu, Wen and their followers, and the protégées of retired but still influential president Jiang Zemin. Very public accusations of corruption against the former Chongqing mayor and high-profile princeling Bo Xilai earlier this year removed him from contention for a spot on the Standing Committee; there have also been embarassing accounts in the Western press detailing the personal fortunes amassed by relatives of incoming president Xi Jinping and outgoing premier Wen Jiabao.